Low-Seeded Teams with High-Impact Potential

In my eleventh grade AP Literature class, I remember learning about the importance of avoiding cliches in my writing (shoutout to Mrs. Szymborski if you're reading this). That principle proved especially helpful in college, as I chose to major in English. Yet it seems to me that a good chunk of folks in sports media would benefit from Mrs. Szymborski's lesson. With basketball coverage in particular, we're peppered with cliches like paintballs, each one imprinting itself on our brains like a paint stain. You probably don't have to think too hard to know what I'm talking about: "make some noise in the tournament," "high upside," "nonstop motor," "peaking at the right time," "live and die by the 3," "lid on the basket," "spark off the bench," and "giant killers" all come to mind. 

One of the first times I heard a famous sports cliche occurred on my middle school football team. I had a teammate named James, who possessed an underwhelming combination of average athleticism and a slight build. But instead of trying to play wide receiver or defensive back like most kids his size would have done, he insisted on playing on the offensive line. Even by middle school football standards (where almost every boy in seventh and eighth grade plays), James was small. When the coaches met his lineman dreams with skepticism, he invoked an all-time platitude: "It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog." 

But in this case, the size of the dog mattered. James frequently got destroyed by bigger kids.

I bring all this up to say, sometimes the smaller dogs with the bigger fight do matter. But I didn't want to use the aforementioned "giant killer" cliche in addressing low-seeded teams who could pull off some upsets (NOT make some noise) in the upcoming NCAA tournament. These squads are by no means final four contenders. I just wouldn't be surprised for them to make it to the second weekend. Maybe they'll flame out like my dear friend James who I haven't talked to since eighth grade. Or maybe they'll be the next [term referring to a Disney princess who goes to a ball with a magic slipper] (again, trying to avoid cliches here).

UCF

NET ranking: 28, KenPom ranking: 35, Joe Lunardi's Projection: 8, Jerry Palm's Projection: 9 seed

Until recently, I viewed American Athletic Conference basketball as an uninteresting enigma. Although the conference has a partnership with ESPN, the games usually get relegated to ESPNU or ESPN3, which makes them low-priority viewing. When I'm using the WatchESPN app on my AppleTV (not sponsored, just trying to create a visual ¯\_(ツ)_/¯), I rarely think to keep scrolling over to find an AAC game. 

However, the highest ranked teams in the AAC usually fall somewhere in the 17-25 range. But, since no one (as in neither myself nor any of my peers) watches these games, how do we know if these teams are actually talented?

Well, fear not: I am excited to report the AAC is not a mythological conference. I watched two whole UCF games (at Cincinnati from February 21, and at Houston from March 2nd), and I know for a fact that they are a fascinating, maybe even a good team.  

If you're at all familiar with the Knights, you've probably heard of Tacko Fall. The Senegalese center boasts 7'6" height and a 10'5" standing reach. As the lynchpin of their interior defense, he roams the paint, ready to offer help to any of his teammates on the perimeter who get beat. Fall's height causes him to fatigue easily (he plays only 24 minutes per game); but when he's on the floor, he deters opposition from driving to hoop like Mucinex deters the little green booger man from your occupying your nasal passages. Per The Ringer's Rodger Sherman, UCF's opponents shoot only 44% of their shots inside the 3-point arc, good for 11th lowest in the nation.

The Knights have pretty decent guard play (point guard BJ Taylor averages 16.3 points and 3.4 assists per game, shooting guard/coach's son Aubrey Dawkins averages 15 points per game) and another athletic big man named Collin Smith. After watching the game against Houston, I thought Smith held the title of UCF's best player. I'm probably wrong--he averages a nondescript 8 points and 5 rebounds a game--but still. He had active hands on defense, ran the floor, dunked everything, and finished with 21 points. 

Although their offense stagnates at times, a 10-seed that slows the game down (310th in tempo, per KenPom) and has an Ent from Lord of the Rings denying everything at the rim could challenge a 2-seed team in the second round.

Clemson

NET ranking: 40, KenPom ranking: 29, Lunardi's Projection: 12-seed (First Four), Palm's Projection: 12-seed (First Four)

This could just be recency bias because Clemson hung with my Tar Heels to final seconds in Littlejohn Coliseum last weekend; but I actually like Clemson's chances to win a couple of games in the tournament, if they can sneak in. 

Going into the season, depth posed the biggest hazard to the Tigers' success. After losing microwave scorer Gabe Devoe (a senior in 2018), Clemson lacked a known scoring threat after guards Marcquise Reed and Shelton Mitchell and big man Elijah Thomas. 

Transitioning into the postseason...Clemson still doesn't have a reliable fourth option. But they have enough pieces to knock out some of the more star-studded teams.

Although Thomas stands at only 6'9", he uses his 245 pound frame to bully dudes down low. The senior averages 2.1 blocks per game, and anchors a unit ranked 10th on KenPom in defensive efficiency. (The man also seems to have a personal vendetta against Luke Maye, as he has won the matchup the last two years.)

Wing David Skara looks like he's more inclined to complain to you about his accounting class than to play basketball; but all the Clemson sports' blogs herald him as their best perimeter defender. He missed a few games with a chest injury, but he appears to be healthy now, just in time for the ACC Tournament.

A stingy defense can catch an offensive-minded (read: soft...that's for all my Big Ten friends) team off guard in the tourney; but if Clemson wins more than a game or two, it will be because of the earlier-mentioned Marcquise Reed (19.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3 apg). Reed plays primarily off-ball, but he can still set his teammates up. Yet his main value lies in his ability to take over a game by unleashing scoring runs of his own. And there is just something about the steady hand of a guard that calms the rest of the team down when they run into adversity in March. 

Nevada

NET ranking: 21, KenPom ranking: 24, Lunardi's Projection: 6-seed, Palm's Projection: 5-seed

I know what you're thinking...Nevada just lost to Utah State last weekend, watched one of their best players throw a haymaker at a glass fire extinguisher case afterwards, and they're currently projected for a top-6 seed...how can they possibly qualify for this list you're crafting, Riley? 

Well...regarding the Utah State loss: they're a potential tournament team, so it's not that bad. Regarding the Jordan Caroline punch: he's still a baller who attacks the glass relentles...er...maybe there's a better way to say that. But their coach still has his back. And lastly, regarding the seeding: they have one Quadrant 1 win. Although their 27-3 record looks very pretty, I don't envision the committee giving them higher than a 7-seed. So that's where things could get interesting.

The Wolf Pack have the experience (an Elite Eight run in 2018), the perimeter play (Caroline, guard/forward Caleb Martin, and his brother, 6'7" point guard Cody Martin can all run the break), and the scoring ability (Caroline and Ca. Martin average 17.7 and 19.6 points, respectively) to end the title hopes of a top-3 seed.

Lipscomb

NET ranking: 45, KenPom ranking: 48, Lunardi's Projection: 13-seed, Palm's Projection: 12-seed

Okay, I can't front; I haven't watched more than half of a Lipscomb basketball game this year. HOWEVER, they seem like they play a fun style of basketball. I know they like to run (they play at the 14th fastest pace in the country, per KenPom) and bomb threes, so at the very least, they'll provide some entertainment if they make the tourney. 

Moreover, all your friends and coworkers will fill their brackets with Wofford as the token mid-major team to advance--but Lipscomb would be a more under-the-radar pick. The Bisons possess a guard in Garrison Mathews who averages 20 points and hits 3 three-pointers a game at a 41% clip. He just looks like the type of dude who can go off for 30 plus, win the hearts of basketball fans across the country, and land a prime slot in "One Shining Moment."

If you're going to tune in to any mid-major conference tournaments, I highly suggest watching Lipscomb and Liberty (there's a joke to be made about Jerry Falwell, Jr. here but I'll bite my tongue) battle for the Atlantic Sun title this Sunday.