Mid-Season Rankings Report
It's wild to me how quickly this season has gone by. But so much has unfolded since Duke smoked Kentucky on opening night--and subsequently launched the nonstop coverage of Zion: Man-child of the 21 Century--that it feels like the game occurred eons ago. I got some things right in the preseason (pegging Iowa State as a team that could make a leap, ranking Virginia Tech just outside the top 10, sticking with Gonzaga in my top 3 even after Killian Tillie's injury) and I got some things very, very, very wrong (West Virginia, UCLA, Oregon, and Syracuse all ranked in my top 15...yikes). And now, with most teams nearing or pass the halfway point of conference play, we at least have an inkling of who is actually good. Although we find little to no certainty in a sport as spastic as college hoops, one thing I do know for sure is that I want to drop every Volvo on the planet into Mariana's Trench after seeing their opera-themed commercial roughly 19,225 times on ESPN.
Anyway, here are my definitive top 15 rankings, subject to change on a nightly to weekly basis. With apologies to Marquette (Big East bias), Nevada (West Coast bias), Auburn (don't lose three in a row next time), Texas Tech (offense too stagnant), and Kansas (actually, I'm pretty happy to see them free fall. It's time for their Big 12 title streak to end)--y'all just missed the cut.
15. Baylor - 15-6
Oh yeahhh, we're starting off here. I haven't watched much of Baylor this year outside of their win against Alabama in the Big 12-SEC challenge late last month. But that contest was win number four in their current six game winning streak--a streak comprised of a victory over Texas Tech, a plastering of Oklahoma by 30 in Norman, and an all out massacre on TCU where Baylor won 90-64. Against the Horned Frogs, Yale transfer Makai Mason dropped 40 points while scoffing at your $40K a year salary.
14. Virginia Tech - 18-4
Throughout the first half of the season, Virginia Tech's offense could be summed up with a four word quote from music legend Rob Thomas (featuring Santana on the guitar): "cuz yo sooo smoooooth." Yet an injury to star point guard Justin Robinson has hampered their once potent scoring ability. A 47-24 win against NC State over the weekend (just as ugly as the final score indicates) (for real, I can't stop laughing at that 24 point total from the Wolfpack), followed by a 72-64 home loss to Louisville on Monday leaves the Hokies no higher than 14. I still believe in the long-term potential...but their depth is a serious concern, and they need to get healthy.
13. Louisville - 17-6
Their roster is full of dudes I've never heard of; they're basically the personification of the Russell Westbrook "Whose Mans" meme. But the Cards are one of the few teams in the country who rank in the top 25 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. I think their 8-2 conference record shows that we're only a year or two away from Chris Mack having Louisville perennially in the UNC/Duke/Virginia tier of the ACC.
12. Villanova - 18-4
I haven't really watched Villanova (again, Big East bias), but I credit them for being 9-0 in conference play. People kinda forgot about guard Phil Booth after he torched my beloved Tar Heels in the 2016 National Championship, but he has seemingly forgotten how to miss a basket (20.6 ppg against Big East opponents).
11. Wisconsin - 16-6
I know that they have 6 losses; but every time I've watched Wisconsin, they have just looked so solid. The Badgers are smothering their opponents, winning each of their last five games by an average of 11.4 points. When you factor in their pace of play (336th slowest in the nation, according to KenPom), that margin of victory further reveals their dominance. Their last loss came on January 14th at Maryland in a game where the Terps still shot just 34%. Since then, the only team to shoot over 36% against Wisconsin is Michigan...who shot 40% and still lost to the Badgers by ten.
Ethan Happ continues to make my preseason take on his game look foolish (hint: I said he was bad), after notching his second triple double of season against Northwestern a week and a half ago. He's averaging 18, 10, and 5 on the season.
10. Purdue - 16-6
Another KenPom darling (10th in his rankings) with a lot of losses. But their beatdown of Michigan State on January 27 (with Carsen Edwards having an off shooting night, no less) speaks volumes. Freshman big man Trevion Williams has been getting a lot of Caleb Swanigan comps recently--mainly due to weighing 280 pounds and also wearing #50--but he has been a beast on the offensive and defensive glass, and has provided the Boilermakers with some much needed rim protection. Senior guard Ryan Cline has proven to be more than a shooter with a Banana Republic haircut.
9. Iowa State - 18-5
I'm riding and dying with the Cyclones this year. They're so fun to watch. In their guards Tyrese Haliburton, Nick Weiler-Babb, Lindell Wigginton, and one of my favorite players in country, the doughy yet thicc yet strong Talen Horton-Tucker, Iowa State has four dudes who can handle the rock, which, as one would guess, spearheads some beautiful ball movement. And that's not even mentioning *my* current pick for Big 12 Player of the Year, Marial Shayok on the wing (19 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 apg, 50% from the field, 39% from 3).
8. Michigan State - 18-4
The Spartans have a great resume, and point guard Cassius Winston has played out his mind since the calendar turned, yet their two-game losing streak raises concerns. It's not so much the shellacking at the hands of Purdue; but, the loss to Indiana at home illuminated their lack of scoring outside of Winston (and some really bad free throw shooting). Their sound defense and Winston's play keeps them here for now.
7. Michigan - 20-2
I still have not forgotten what the Wolverines did to Villanova, UNC, and Purdue in late November/early December. But they've had a lot of close calls recently. Charles Matthews hasn't made the leap on offense that I anticipated (I still would never ever ever ever ever say anything remotely insulting to him though. He is in the top 3 of college hoopers I wouldn't want to fight). And sometimes, if you observe their offensive output in the box scores, it looks pretty abysmal. There are a lot of guys shooting 3-8, 2-9, etc. on a regular basis. This may sound negative, so I'll say some nice things: Zavier Simpson is the consummate college point guard, their defense is ranked first in adjusted efficiency on KenPom, and they are still very much a national title contender.
6. North Carolina - 17-4
Aw shucks, y'all probably don't want to hear me boast about my team that is undefeated on the road in conference play, has won 9 of their last 10, and is led by the best point guard in the ACC, now, do ya?
5. Kentucky - 18-3
Two weeks ago, in a game at Auburn with Dickie V on the call, Vitale lamented that Kentucky big man PJ Washington wasn't averaging 17 and 10 on the season. Upon hearing this, I rolled my eyes and brushed it off as typical Dickie V drivel. Washington is a good defender who can attack the glass and score when he needs to; but we're already halfway through the season, so I just assumed he would never blossom into a super dynamic offensive player. Yet, Washington finished with 13 and 7 against the Tigers, and he followed that up with a 21 point, 6 rebound, and 4 block performance against Mississippi State a few days later. That outing evoked one of the most bizarre, inaccurate comparisons from CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein.
Washington hot takes notwithstanding, his newly found alpha-dog ferocity has fueled Kentucky's 8 game winning streak (he's averaging 19 points and 10 rebounds per game since the Auburn win).
4. Gonzaga - 21-2
Now, here is where things get interesting...Regarding my top 4, I really can't tell you who is the best team out of the group. But we'll start with Gonzaga: they don't really have any noticeable weaknesses. Josh Perkins has been a steady and awesome floor general (10.9 ppg, 6.7 apg, 45%, 37%, 87% shooting splits). Forward Rui Hachimura is a likely lottery pick. Big man Brandon Clarke is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. The Zags can go big and they can play small. They have a coach who can adjust to whatever opponents trot out to try to foil them. They're fully healthy and destroying all of their foes in the West Coast Conference. If I was a betting man, I'd say they are the safest pick to make it to the Final Four. They're just not higher than 4 because the next team beat them...
3. Tennessee - 20-1
When the Vols prioritize their effort on defense, they are the best team in the country. All five players on the floor move as a single unit--communicating, switching, and helping with a graceful fluidity, rarely blowing an assignment. They almost operate like a synchronized swim team, reminiscent of that one Hey Arnold episode.
However, against SEC bottom dwellers like Vandy and Texas A&M, the Vols have not prioritized their effort on defense. Still, Grant Williams is prone to morph into Thanos at a moment's notice, so Tennessee continues to run rampant through their conference competition. I do believe that they can flip the switch when it comes to defense; I would just like to see that more consistently against lesser opponents.
2. Duke - 19-2
Speaking of flipping a switch, I am very scared that this team is going to shift into another gear come tournament time to unleash an unstoppable torrent of dunks, blocks, steals, and Coach K red-hued pouty faces.
1. Virginia - 20-1
Even after losing to Duke two weeks ago, the Hoos are my pick to win the national championship. All it takes is a couple of things to break your way in the tournament to get over the hump. I believe that happens for Tony Bennett this year (remember, Villanova's Jay Wright was known as a choker just four years ago).
Besides the usual suspects of Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, and DeAndre Hunter, I want to highlight redshirt sophomore big man Jay Huff. Averaging a cool 10 minutes per game, Huff kind of functions like Hunter did for Virginia last year, albeit in a different role. The dude is a legit 7 feet tall, and comes off the bench to score, grab boards, and protect the rim. Having a reserve with his skillset is one of the reasons why I feel so confident about the Hoos' postseason chances. And hopefully, he dunks on Duke a few more times this Saturday.
Anyway, here are my definitive top 15 rankings, subject to change on a nightly to weekly basis. With apologies to Marquette (Big East bias), Nevada (West Coast bias), Auburn (don't lose three in a row next time), Texas Tech (offense too stagnant), and Kansas (actually, I'm pretty happy to see them free fall. It's time for their Big 12 title streak to end)--y'all just missed the cut.
15. Baylor - 15-6
Oh yeahhh, we're starting off here. I haven't watched much of Baylor this year outside of their win against Alabama in the Big 12-SEC challenge late last month. But that contest was win number four in their current six game winning streak--a streak comprised of a victory over Texas Tech, a plastering of Oklahoma by 30 in Norman, and an all out massacre on TCU where Baylor won 90-64. Against the Horned Frogs, Yale transfer Makai Mason dropped 40 points while scoffing at your $40K a year salary.
14. Virginia Tech - 18-4
Throughout the first half of the season, Virginia Tech's offense could be summed up with a four word quote from music legend Rob Thomas (featuring Santana on the guitar): "cuz yo sooo smoooooth." Yet an injury to star point guard Justin Robinson has hampered their once potent scoring ability. A 47-24 win against NC State over the weekend (just as ugly as the final score indicates) (for real, I can't stop laughing at that 24 point total from the Wolfpack), followed by a 72-64 home loss to Louisville on Monday leaves the Hokies no higher than 14. I still believe in the long-term potential...but their depth is a serious concern, and they need to get healthy.
13. Louisville - 17-6
Their roster is full of dudes I've never heard of; they're basically the personification of the Russell Westbrook "Whose Mans" meme. But the Cards are one of the few teams in the country who rank in the top 25 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. I think their 8-2 conference record shows that we're only a year or two away from Chris Mack having Louisville perennially in the UNC/Duke/Virginia tier of the ACC.
12. Villanova - 18-4
I haven't really watched Villanova (again, Big East bias), but I credit them for being 9-0 in conference play. People kinda forgot about guard Phil Booth after he torched my beloved Tar Heels in the 2016 National Championship, but he has seemingly forgotten how to miss a basket (20.6 ppg against Big East opponents).
11. Wisconsin - 16-6
I know that they have 6 losses; but every time I've watched Wisconsin, they have just looked so solid. The Badgers are smothering their opponents, winning each of their last five games by an average of 11.4 points. When you factor in their pace of play (336th slowest in the nation, according to KenPom), that margin of victory further reveals their dominance. Their last loss came on January 14th at Maryland in a game where the Terps still shot just 34%. Since then, the only team to shoot over 36% against Wisconsin is Michigan...who shot 40% and still lost to the Badgers by ten.
Ethan Happ continues to make my preseason take on his game look foolish (hint: I said he was bad), after notching his second triple double of season against Northwestern a week and a half ago. He's averaging 18, 10, and 5 on the season.
10. Purdue - 16-6
Another KenPom darling (10th in his rankings) with a lot of losses. But their beatdown of Michigan State on January 27 (with Carsen Edwards having an off shooting night, no less) speaks volumes. Freshman big man Trevion Williams has been getting a lot of Caleb Swanigan comps recently--mainly due to weighing 280 pounds and also wearing #50--but he has been a beast on the offensive and defensive glass, and has provided the Boilermakers with some much needed rim protection. Senior guard Ryan Cline has proven to be more than a shooter with a Banana Republic haircut.
9. Iowa State - 18-5
I'm riding and dying with the Cyclones this year. They're so fun to watch. In their guards Tyrese Haliburton, Nick Weiler-Babb, Lindell Wigginton, and one of my favorite players in country, the doughy yet thicc yet strong Talen Horton-Tucker, Iowa State has four dudes who can handle the rock, which, as one would guess, spearheads some beautiful ball movement. And that's not even mentioning *my* current pick for Big 12 Player of the Year, Marial Shayok on the wing (19 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 apg, 50% from the field, 39% from 3).
8. Michigan State - 18-4
The Spartans have a great resume, and point guard Cassius Winston has played out his mind since the calendar turned, yet their two-game losing streak raises concerns. It's not so much the shellacking at the hands of Purdue; but, the loss to Indiana at home illuminated their lack of scoring outside of Winston (and some really bad free throw shooting). Their sound defense and Winston's play keeps them here for now.
7. Michigan - 20-2
I still have not forgotten what the Wolverines did to Villanova, UNC, and Purdue in late November/early December. But they've had a lot of close calls recently. Charles Matthews hasn't made the leap on offense that I anticipated (I still would never ever ever ever ever say anything remotely insulting to him though. He is in the top 3 of college hoopers I wouldn't want to fight). And sometimes, if you observe their offensive output in the box scores, it looks pretty abysmal. There are a lot of guys shooting 3-8, 2-9, etc. on a regular basis. This may sound negative, so I'll say some nice things: Zavier Simpson is the consummate college point guard, their defense is ranked first in adjusted efficiency on KenPom, and they are still very much a national title contender.
6. North Carolina - 17-4
Aw shucks, y'all probably don't want to hear me boast about my team that is undefeated on the road in conference play, has won 9 of their last 10, and is led by the best point guard in the ACC, now, do ya?
5. Kentucky - 18-3
Two weeks ago, in a game at Auburn with Dickie V on the call, Vitale lamented that Kentucky big man PJ Washington wasn't averaging 17 and 10 on the season. Upon hearing this, I rolled my eyes and brushed it off as typical Dickie V drivel. Washington is a good defender who can attack the glass and score when he needs to; but we're already halfway through the season, so I just assumed he would never blossom into a super dynamic offensive player. Yet, Washington finished with 13 and 7 against the Tigers, and he followed that up with a 21 point, 6 rebound, and 4 block performance against Mississippi State a few days later. That outing evoked one of the most bizarre, inaccurate comparisons from CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein.
Washington hot takes notwithstanding, his newly found alpha-dog ferocity has fueled Kentucky's 8 game winning streak (he's averaging 19 points and 10 rebounds per game since the Auburn win).
4. Gonzaga - 21-2
Now, here is where things get interesting...Regarding my top 4, I really can't tell you who is the best team out of the group. But we'll start with Gonzaga: they don't really have any noticeable weaknesses. Josh Perkins has been a steady and awesome floor general (10.9 ppg, 6.7 apg, 45%, 37%, 87% shooting splits). Forward Rui Hachimura is a likely lottery pick. Big man Brandon Clarke is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. The Zags can go big and they can play small. They have a coach who can adjust to whatever opponents trot out to try to foil them. They're fully healthy and destroying all of their foes in the West Coast Conference. If I was a betting man, I'd say they are the safest pick to make it to the Final Four. They're just not higher than 4 because the next team beat them...
3. Tennessee - 20-1
When the Vols prioritize their effort on defense, they are the best team in the country. All five players on the floor move as a single unit--communicating, switching, and helping with a graceful fluidity, rarely blowing an assignment. They almost operate like a synchronized swim team, reminiscent of that one Hey Arnold episode.
However, against SEC bottom dwellers like Vandy and Texas A&M, the Vols have not prioritized their effort on defense. Still, Grant Williams is prone to morph into Thanos at a moment's notice, so Tennessee continues to run rampant through their conference competition. I do believe that they can flip the switch when it comes to defense; I would just like to see that more consistently against lesser opponents.
2. Duke - 19-2
Speaking of flipping a switch, I am very scared that this team is going to shift into another gear come tournament time to unleash an unstoppable torrent of dunks, blocks, steals, and Coach K red-hued pouty faces.
1. Virginia - 20-1
Even after losing to Duke two weeks ago, the Hoos are my pick to win the national championship. All it takes is a couple of things to break your way in the tournament to get over the hump. I believe that happens for Tony Bennett this year (remember, Villanova's Jay Wright was known as a choker just four years ago).
Besides the usual suspects of Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, and DeAndre Hunter, I want to highlight redshirt sophomore big man Jay Huff. Averaging a cool 10 minutes per game, Huff kind of functions like Hunter did for Virginia last year, albeit in a different role. The dude is a legit 7 feet tall, and comes off the bench to score, grab boards, and protect the rim. Having a reserve with his skillset is one of the reasons why I feel so confident about the Hoos' postseason chances. And hopefully, he dunks on Duke a few more times this Saturday.
Go Vols
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