Preseason College Basketball Rankings, Part 1

Sometime in October, the switch flips from college hoops’ “Way Too Early” Top 25s to Preseason Top 25s—despite only a few things changing in the basketball world. There might be a transfer given eligibility here and an injury there, but that’s about it (and the NCAA ain’t doling out suspensions to the schools implicated in the FBI investigation any time soon, if ever). Truthfully, Preseason Top 25s and Way Too Early Top 25s both stem from blind speculation. The initial rankings may be obsolete in a month.

One could compare preseason rankings to “empty calories"...but in my experience, consuming empty calories (i.e. ice cream, starches) has never not been enjoyable. So they’re more “fun calories,” if you ask me. 

So let these rankings whet your appetite for the Champions Classic, Feast Week, Duke and Kentucky chemistry issues, and all of the college basketball goodness that will soon be on your table. 

Notice: I won’t cover all teams in-depth, because that would be too long and no one would read. Some teams may just have a sentence or two. So we begin…

Notable Names Falling back into College Hoops Oblivion

Xavier - Chris Mack is off to succeed Rick Pitino, and I can’t name a single player left on Xavier’s roster, aside from Enes Kanter’s brother. 

Oklahoma - One could argue they’ve been in oblivion since January, but they made the tourney last year, so they get a shoutout here. But this will undoubtedly be the last time you think about the Sooners this season.

Texas A&M - Launch this team into the sun, and let me never see them again.

Wisconsin - They didn’t emerge from oblivion last year, and they won’t this year, either. Stop saying Ethan Happ will be an All-American. 

Teams that could make a jump/intrigue me

Miami - Their triumvirate of talented guards (Bruce Brown, Lonnie Walker IV, and JaQuan Newton) all moved on to the NBA or graduated, but I’m still a little hesitant to completely disregard the U. Sophomore point guard Chris Lykes will surely get Isaiah Thomas comparisons (he’s a 5’7” volume shooter) and junior big man Dewan Hernandez (formerly Huell) will posterize multiple victims in the ACC; but I don’t know what else Jim Larranega can get from his team. They will still probably beat UNC in Corral Gables, though.

Vanderbilt - I always view one and done talent-based teams with skepticism, especially when a) the team is from a school of nerds, and b) the team won 12 games the previous season. However, Vandy will be fascinating with projected first-round point guard Darius Garland leading the offense, and fellow five star freshman Simi Shittu serving as his running mate. Plus, Memorial Gymnasium weirdly remains one of the toughest places to play.

Notre Dame - UNC and Duke fans unite over celebrating the departures of Matt Farrell and Bonzie Colson, a duo that tormented Tobacco Road for four years; but even without two of the best players in Irish history, I am excited to see how Notre Dame responds after an injury-plagued 2017-18. Mike Bray’s teams succeed even without big name recruits.

Mississippi State - I’ve seen them a lot in other rankings, so I’ll throw them on here. Senior guard Quindarry Weatherspoon has one of the best names in the sport. They can’t shoot though.

Georgetown - I didn’t watch a single Georgetown game last year, but I just kind of have the feeling that they’re gonna be kind of okay.

NC State - Incumbent starters Markelle Johnson (7 assists per game in 2017-18), Braxton Beverly (9.7ppg, 4apg, one incredible white boy tattoo sleeve in 2017-18), and Torin Dorn (volume scorer with a funky looking shot that goes in, 14ppg in 2017-18) welcome Wilmington transfer CJ Bryce to the mix to round out Kevin Keatts’ four guard lineup. Their perimeter strength alone is enough to make me consider putting them in my top 25. But it’s still NC State, so you never know when it could all unravel. 

Iowa State - sophomore point guard Lindell Wigginton could be the first floor general taken in the 2019 draft. And last year he did this

The Real Deal:

25. Florida State - I don’t value mid-to-low seeds excelling in March too much going into the next season, which is why FSU is lower here than in other rankings. However, Leonard Hamilton returns one of the ACC’s most underrated players in guard Terrance Mann (13ppg, 5rpg in 2017-18), who could build off an outstanding tournament to turn in an All-ACC type year. The Noles possess a deep roster, with a starting five comprised of guys 6’4” and taller. Limbs everywhere. 

24. Texas - What is Shaka’s ceiling as a coach? I didn’t think I’d be asking that four years into his tenure, but his Final Four run at VCU feels like decades ago. Defense has never been an issue for his teams (they ranked 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency last season on KenPom); however, I’ve watched more than a few Texas games where the Longhorns chuck up brick after brick after brick (89th in adjusted offensive efficiency last season on KenPom). This must change in a pivotal year for Smart, but I’m a believer in sophomore point guard Matt Coleman and stretch-ish four Dylan Osetkowski (42 made threes…on 146 attempts). Sophomore big Jericho Sims looked bouncy and explosive when given opportunity last year (mainly when Mo Bamba was injured), and I could see him developing into a solid contributor. 

23. Washington - The Huskies return all five starters from a 21 win NIT team last year; but UW wasn’t even on my radar until I saw that they beat Nevada in a scrimmage by 18. I don’t know how much stock to put into preseason scrimmages—but as you’ll see, I expect Nevada to be very good. Mike Hopkins, a Jim Boeheim protege, runs the same suffocating zone that brought 'Cuse into the limelight. I expect Washington to give opposing offenses fits all season 

22. St. John’s - I have no connection to St. John’s, but I want them to be good so badly. The Duke Destroyer Shamorie Ponds is a national player of the year candidate. Despite a streaky jump shot, Ponds remains one of the nation’s best microwave scorers. Versatile wings Justin Simon (12 ppg, 7rpg, 5apg in 2017-18) and Auburn-transfer Mustapha Heron (16.4ppg, 5.3 rpg in 2017-18) will complement Ponds as the leaders of the Red Storm.

21. Nebraska - I didn’t watch a second of Nebraska basketball last year. But I don’t expect the Big Ten to be very good; and Nebraska may emerge as the best team in the league, led by conference player of the year candidate James Palmer Jr. (17ppg, 3rpg, 4apg in 2017-18). 

20. Michigan State - I’m low on the Spartans because they had as much, if not more, talent than 'Nova and all the blue bloods last season (two lottery picks in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Miles Bridges), and did absolutely nothing in the postseason. They have the ability to stay in the bottom half of the top 25, but that’s all I’m buying for now.

19. LSU - Much fanfare has been made about LSU’s recruiting class (Naz Reid and Emmitt Williams are two top 20 prospects); but I have the Tigers this high because of how I expect them to aid Tremont Waters. An expected one-and-done, the sophomore point guard comes back to Baton Rouge after averaging 16 points and 6 assists a game his freshman year. LSU shouldn’t miss the tourney this year. Although they have botched All-Americans before…

18. Michigan - The 2018 runner-ups lost their three best shooters (guard Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, guard Duncan Robinson, and big man Mo Wagner) to graduation or the NBA. However, John Beilein retains a good bit of talent in Ann Arbor—if Purdue's Carsen Edwards isn’t the Big Ten player of the year, it will be junior guard Charles Matthews. 

17. TCU - This seems like an appropriate spot for a Jamie Dixon-coached team. Good enough to win 25-27 games, but not good enough to be top 10. If point guard Jaylen Fisher (12ppg, 5apg last season) can stay healthy, he and Aussie sophomore wing Koata Noi can spur the Horned Frogs into Big 12 title contention (lol jk Kansas still exists)…and more realistically, a 3-4 seed.

16. UCLA - it feels like UCLA underachieves every year, but the Bruins usher in a great recruiting class (6th in the nation, according to 247sports) to team up with a roster that brims with potential. Guards Kris Wilkes and Jaylen Hands (the non-LiAngelos of UCLA’s 2017 class) both project as future NBA players and will captain the best backcourt in the Pac-12.

15. West Virginia - As long as Bob Huggins has well-conditioned, gritty, unheralded athletes, WVU will succeed. Even after losing All-American point guard Jevon Carter to the NBA, the 'Eers still retain wing Esa Ahmad, guard Beetle Bolden, and dark horse Big 12 Player of the Year candidate Sagaba Konate.

14. Kansas State - As earlier stated, I don’t put too much stock into random bad teams getting hot for a couple of weeks and taking advantage of the pandemonium of March. However, it’s hard to overlook the top players gearing up for another season in Manhattan (guards Kamau Stokes and Barry Brown, All-Big 12 forward Dean Wade). Guard play and defense usually lead to success in the tournament—and the Wildcats have both (21st in KenPom in 2017-18); but Bruce Weber could still mess this up.

13. Oregon - I’m admittedly high on the Ducks, because I think Dana Altman is too good of a coach to have another down year, like he did in 2017-18. Five star big man Bol Bol (who’s approximately eleven feet tall) comes to Eugene with the highest expectations of any Oregon player ever. Junior point guard Payton Pritchard will provide the perfect David to Bol’s Goliath. I could see the duo developing a lethal pick-and-roll game.

12. Syracuse - The Orange return all five starters from last year, and could easily have their best team since 2013-2014. Their defense (5th on KenPom in 2017-18) should rival Virginia’s for best in the nation. What I think will separate this 'Cuse team from others in recent years is an offense that shouldn’t be quite as painful to watch. Guard Tyus Battle and forward Oshae Brissett get buckets and create for others.

11. Virginia Tech - VT looks like the exact opposite of Syracuse: an offense as smooth as obsidian with a defense as porous as sandstone (70th on KenPom in 2017-18) . But could this still be the year that Buzz Williams’ Hokies elevate to something more than a cute story? VT’s small ball has sporadically spoiled the hopes of the big dawgs of the ACC the last couple of years (upset wins over Duke, UNC, and UVA last year, specifically); but nothing close to an ACC championship or a deep run in March has materialized. However, Justin Robinson is an all-ACC guard (who WORKED the aforementioned Blue Devils, Heels, and Hoos last season) with his best supporting cast yet. Guard Ty Outlaw (48% 3 point FG in 2016-17) will suit up healthy, too. When forward Chris Clark (best hair in the nation) returns from suspension (indefinite, but as Coach K taught us, that could mean one game), this entire starting 5 will bomb threes. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make the Final Four.